Executive Summary

Vietnam’s economy maintained strong momentum in 2025. GDP expanded 7.96% year-on-year in Q2 and 6.9% in Q1, resulting in a 7.52% first-half growth rate—the highest H1 performance since 2011—driven by services and manufacturing despite global trade tensions and tariff headwinds. Inflation remained contained (3.24% in May, 3.57% in June) within a manageable 3–4.5% range. Unemployment fell to 2.20% in Q1 2025, sustaining a historically tight labor market. FDI inflows were robust: US$18.4bn registered and US$8.9bn disbursed in the first five months; total H1 FDI reached US$21.51bn, up 32.6% year-on-year.

GDP Growth, Q2 2025 (y/y)

7.96%

Strong quarterly expansion

GDP Growth, H1 2025

7.52%

Highest since 2011

Inflation June 2025

3.57%

Controlled

FDI, H1 2025

$21.51bn

+32.6% y/y

Core Insight: Domestic fundamentals (services, manufacturing, tight labor market) are offsetting external drag from trade tensions.

Policy Gap: Government growth target (8.3–8.5%) exceeds multilateral forecasts (IMF 5.2%, World Bank 5.8%, ADB 6.6%).

Stability Watch: Maintain growth without compromising macro stability, debt sustainability, or price control.

Sources: IMF, ADB, World Bank, Vietnam GSO (see full citations below).

Methodology

This interactive report synthesizes official statistics and reputable multilateral estimates to present a concise, visual overview of Vietnam’s 2025 economic performance.

Data Collection & Processing

Primary sources: Vietnam General Statistics Office (GSO), IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank.
Timeframe: up to H1 2025; Q1 2020–Q1 2025 for historical Q1 growth series.
Consistency: Where multiple forecasts exist, values are shown per source; no averaging applied.
Units: Growth and inflation are year-on-year percentages; FDI in current USD.

Visualization & Interaction

SVG-based charts with tooltips, animations, and export to PNG.
Heatmap reflects data-driven keyword frequency across sections (no subjective scoring).
Sortable, filterable table with CSV export and clipboard copy.

Quality & Limitations

Figures reflect reported values at time of publication; subject to revisions by original sources.
Forecasts are institution-specific and not directly comparable to targets.
All derived insights reference underlying published numbers; no extrapolation beyond provided data.

Key Economic Indicators (2025)

GDP Growth Forecasts (2025)

Multilateral Government Target

International institutions project growth between 5.2% (IMF) and 6.6% (ADB), below the government’s 8.3–8.5% target—implying execution risk if external headwinds persist.

FDI Composition (First 5 months 2025)

Registered (US$18.4bn) Disbursed (US$8.9bn)

High registered capital signals a strong pipeline; timely disbursement remains key to real-economy impact.

Inflation Snapshot (2025)

Actual (May–June) Forecasts (IMF, ADB)

Inflation remains well-controlled and within the 3–4.5% policy comfort band.

Labor Market Snapshot

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment edged down to 2.20% in Q1 2025 from 2.22% in Q4 2024, reinforcing domestic demand.

Citations: IMF, ADB, World Bank, GSO. See Sources for links.

Sectoral Analysis

Four pillars underpin 2025 growth: services, manufacturing, export industries, and banking. Banking earnings are projected to rise 17% on system-wide credit growth of ~15%.

Retail Sales Momentum (Q1 2025)

Sales (VND) YoY Growth

Retail sales totaled 1.708 quadrillion VND (US$66.83bn), up 9.9% y/y—supporting services sector strength.

Risk Signal Heatmap (keyword frequency by section)

Higher frequency Lower frequency

Signals are text-derived (trade tensions, tariffs, geopolitics, inflation, FDI, debt) to contextualize where risks cluster in the narrative.

Challenges and Risk Factors

Global trade tensions weighing on exports.
US tariff policies pressure export-oriented businesses.
Geopolitical instability adds uncertainty.
Warnings on inflation and overdependence on FDI.
Imperative to preserve macro stability, debt sustainability, and inflation control.

Mitigation: Diversify export markets; strengthen domestic demand; enhance resilience.

Policy Space: Fiscal support available if global shocks intensify.

Banking: Earnings growth hinges on credit expansion and asset quality vigilance.

Historical Comparison

Q1 year-on-year GDP growth (2020–2025): 3.21%, 4.85%, 5.42%, 3.46%, 5.98%, 6.93%. 2024 full-year GDP growth: 7.1%.

Q1 GDP YoY, 2020–2025

GDP YoY

Trend shows recovery from 2023 softness, reaching 6.93% in Q1 2025.

Q1 GDP Points (2020–2025)

Individual Points

Scatter complements the line chart, highlighting discrete year performance.

Source: Trading Economics; Vietnam GSO.

Economic Outlook and Projections

Near-term growth remains solid with robust domestic drivers and strong FDI pipeline. External risks warrant caution, and the government’s higher target (8.3–8.5%) implies ambitious execution amid uncertainty. Parliament raised the growth target from 6.5%–7% to at least 8%.

Supporting factors: robust FDI inflows, low unemployment, controlled inflation, export competitiveness, parliamentary support.
Risk management: diversify markets, support domestic demand, preserve macro stability, retain fiscal space to cushion shocks.

Datasets & Evidence

Indicator	Period	Value	Unit	Category	Source

Click headers to sort. Use filter tags to subset. Export options above.

Appendices

Appendix A — Data Dictionary

GDP YoY: Year-over-year percentage change in Gross Domestic Product.
Inflation: Consumer price inflation, year-over-year percentage.
Unemployment: Official unemployment rate.
FDI: Foreign Direct Investment; Registered (commitment), Disbursed (realized).
Retail Sales: Value of retail trade; YoY growth rate.

Appendix B — Methodological Notes

Historical series derived explicitly from the report’s stated values (Q1 2020–2025).
Forecasts displayed per institution; government target shown as midpoint of 8.3–8.5% for visualization clarity. Raw range available in table.
Currency conversions: supplied USD values are used as-is.

Appendix C — Glossary

YoY: Year-over-year.
H1: First half of the year.
Q1/Q2: First/Second quarter of the year.

Appendix D — Reproducibility

All charts are SVG-based and can be exported as PNG. Data table can be copied or downloaded as CSV. This page stores only your theme and UI preferences locally.

Sources and Citations

Citations are embedded throughout charts and datasets. Click links to verify source materials.